Updated the package citation to the published article in Methods
in Ecology and Evolution.
Added examples for irregularly spaced observation times and missing
observations in ext_di().
Clarified the distinction between the default ML method and the OEAR
method for irregular or mildly incomplete time series.
extr 1.1.0 (2026-03-14)
Changes in 1.1.0
Added method = "oear" to ext_di(),
allowing extinction probability estimates and associated confidence
intervals to be computed using an
observation-error-and-autocovariance-robust (OEAR) plug-in variance
estimate.
Implemented the OEAR variance estimator using HAC long-run variance
estimation with AR(1) pre-whitening and a Bartlett kernel.
Added OEAR diagnostics (rho_tilde_pw and
j) to the returned object and printed output.
Updated method-specific output: for method = "naive",
output includes Variance and aic; for
method = "oear", output includes
Process variance (OEAR), reports aic as
NA, and reports lower_cl_s and
upper_cl_s using a chi-square-based pragmatic plug-in
approximation.
extr 1.0.0 (2025-09-15)
Up to 0.9.0
Core extinction-risk estimator ext_di for
density-independent (drifted Wiener) models.
Includes MLEs of growth rate and environmental variance from
irregular time series.
Includes point estimate of extinction probability.
Includes confidence intervals for extinction probability (w-z
method) with near-nominal coverage.
Includes optional QQ-plot diagnostic.
Changes in 1.0.0
Numerical stability and range:
Adaptive probability representation on G, log G, and log(1-G).
Uses complement form when G is near 0 or 1 to maintain numerical
accuracy.
Log-scale representation extends safe range down to symbolic
exp(-DBL_MAX).
Probabilities near 0 or 1 are displayed as 10^-* or
1-10^-*.
Printed output:
Printed precision is configurable via
options("extr.digits").